Breast and prostate cancer risk: The interplay of polygenic risk, rare pathogenic germline variants, and family history

• DOI: 10.1016/j.gim.2021.11.009
• Publication Date: 2021-11-29T21:45:23Z
• Authors: Emadeldin Hassanin; Patrick May; Rana Aldisi; Isabel Spier; Andreas J. Forstner; Markus M. Nöthen; Stefan Aretz; Peter Krawitz; Dheeraj Reddy Bob...; Carlo Maj
• Keywords: Cumulative incidence

We aimed to investigate to what extent polygenic risk scores (PRS), rare pathogenic germline variants (PVs), and family history jointly influence breast cancer and prostate cancer risk.A total of 200,643 individuals from the UK Biobank were categorized as follows: (1) heterozygotes or nonheterozygotes for PVs in moderate to high-risk cancer genes, (2) PRS strata, and (3) with or without a family history of cancer. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute the odds ratio across groups and the cumulative incidence through life.Cumulative incidence by age 70 years among the nonheterozygotes across PRS strata ranged from 9% to 32% and from 9% to 35% for breast cancer and prostate cancer, respectively. Among the PV heterozygotes it ranged from 20% to 48% in moderate-risk genes and from 51% to 74% in high-risk genes for breast cancer, and it ranged from 30% to 59% in prostate cancer risk genes. Family history was always associated with an increased cancer odds ratio.PRS alone provides a meaningful risk gradient leading to a cancer risk stratification comparable to PVs in moderate risk genes, whereas acts as a risk modifier when considering high-risk genes. Including family history along with PV and PRS further improves cancer risk stratification.