1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic

• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2020.100023
• Publication Date: 2020-03-23T16:27:11Z
• Authors: W.W. Koczkodaj; M.A. Mansournia; W. Pedrycz; A. Wolny-Dominiak; P.F. Zabrodskii; D. Strzałka; T. Armstrong; A.H. Zolfaghari; M. Dębski; J. Mazurek
• Keywords: Pandemic; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Plot (graphics)

We forecast 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases outside of China by March 31st, 2020 based on a heuristic and WHO situation reports. do not model the pandemic; we only number cases. The proposed is simple observation that plot given data well approximated an exponential curve. curve used for forecasting growth new It has been tested last report day. Its accuracy 1.29% day added predicted 57 previous reports (the date 18 2020). Prediction, forecast, pandemic, COVID-19, coronavirus, parameter, heuristic, epidemiology, extrapolation, abductive reasoning, report.