Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment under future climate and land cover changes: A case study from southwest China

• DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101542
• Publication Date: 2023-01-20T08:30:50Z
• Authors: Zizheng Guo; Joaquin Vicente F...; Marcel Hürlimann; Vicente Medina; Carol Puig-Polo; Kunlong Yin; Da Huang
• Keywords: Land Cover; Antecedent moisture; Natural hazard; Return period

There is no doubt that land cover and climate changes have consequences on landslide activity, but it still an open issue to assess quantify their impacts. Wanzhou County in southwest China was selected as the test area study rainfall-induced shallow susceptibility under future of use (LULC) climate. We used a high-resolution meteorological precipitation dataset frequency distribution model analyse present extreme antecedent rainfall conditions related activity. The change factors were obtained from 4-member multi-model ensemble derived statistically downscaled regional simulations. LULC maps simulated by modeller (LCM) integrated into IDRISI Selva software. A total six scenarios defined considering (antecedent events) towards two time periods (mid late XXI century). physically-based these different scenarios. results showed magnitude both effective recharge event region will evidently increase future. Under scenario with return period 100 years, summer up 63% whereas 54% for 21st century. most considerable be forest decrease farming land. this can reach + 22.1% (forest) –9.2% (farmland) 2010 until 2100, respectively. found negative impact greater than stabilizing effect change, leading over stability area. This one first studies across Asia driven change. Our aim guide planning mitigation considerations reduce risk.