The role of national carbon pricing in phasing out China's coal power

• DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2021.102655
• Publication Date: 2021-05-27T14:15:17Z
• Authors: Jianlei Mo; Weirong Zhang; Qiang Tu; Jiahai Yuan; Hongbo Duan; Ying Fan; Jiaofeng Pan; Jian Zhang; Zhixu Meng
• Keywords: Carbon fibers; Scenario analysis

As the country with world's largest coal power capacity, China is launching a national carbon market. How pricing may contribute to phasing out China's great concern. We collect full-sample data set of 4540 operating plant units and develop stochastic Monte-Carlo financial model assess sustainability operation. Although plants have long residual technical lifetime, their operations are close break-even state. Even low price 50 CNY/tCO2 growing at 4%/y permits being fully auctioned, average lifetime all will be reduced by 5.43 years, cumulative CO2 emission from 2020 2050 22.73 billion ton. The spatial disparity in effect significant, western regions more vulnerable risk than eastern regions.