Prediction of air quality indicators for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.06.068
• Publication Date: 2018-06-14T10:51:06Z
• Authors: Lifeng Wu; Nu Li; Yingjie Yang
• Keywords: 13. Climate action; 11. Sustainability; 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Abstract The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is facing a very serious air pollution problem. To obtain the future trend of air quality, the GM(1,1) model with the fractional order accumulation (FGM(1,1)) is used to predict the average annual concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, 8-h O3, and 24-h O3 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2017 to 2020. The concentrations of PM2.5 and SO2 will decrease and the 8-h O3 and 24-h O3 will increase in this region. The concentrations of PM10 and NO2 will decrease in the Taihang-Mountain-adjacent region (Baoding, Shijiazhuang, Xingtai, Handan and Hengshui) and increase in the Northern region (Zhangjiakou, Chengde and Qinhuangdao). The concentration of PM10 will decrease and NO2 will increase in the Bohai Sea region (Tangshan, Tianjin, Cangzhou, Beijing and Langfang). Our results can be directly exploited in the decision-making processes for air quality management.