Estimating economic impacts from future energy demand changes due to climate change and economic development in China

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127576
• Publication Date: 2021-05-23T03:26:48Z
• Authors: Chengfang Huang; Zhengtao Zhang; Ning Li; Yuan Liu; Xi Chen; Fenggui Liu
• Keywords: energy demand; Energy supply; Economic model

The energy demand is significantly affected by climate change and economic factors, the distribution of among different regions in China unequal because large regional differences development. Moreover, changes will directly affect sector as supply side amplifies impact through industrial linkages sectors. Therefore, we developed an integrated assessment model combining demand-driven (EDD) adaptive multiregional input-output (AMRIO). assumptions were used based on China's future climate, economy In addition, evaluated century-scale its possible 5 scenarios (SSPx-y CMIP6). results show that following: (i) continue to increase approximately 1.89–1.94 times 2100, resulting a negative GDP ranging from 8.19% 12.05%. (ii) cumulatively benefit 26% demand; however, other sectors suffer ripple impacts due imbalance demand, especially manufacturing (719%) agriculture (577%). provide quantitative information for policymakers fully consider positive when making mitigation strategies.