The PRECOS framework: Measuring the impacts of the global changes on soils, water, agriculture on territories to better anticipate the future

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.07.002
• Publication Date: 2016-08-05T10:18:04Z
• Authors: Fabienne Trolard; Guilhem Bourrié; Antoine Baillieux; Samuel Buis; André Chanzy; Philippe Clastre; Jean-François Closet; Dominique Courault; Marie-Lorraine Da...; Nicola Di Virgilio; Philippe Dussouil...; Jules Fleury; Jérémy Gasc; Ghislain Géniaux; Rachel Jouan; Catherine Keller; Patrice Lecharpen...; Jean Lecroart; Claude Napoleone; Gihan Mohammed; Albert Olioso; Suzanne Reynders; Federica Rossi; Mike Tennant; Javier de Vicente...
• Keywords: DYNAMICS; 550; 0211 other engineering and technologies; 02 engineering and technology; CROP MODEL; Soil; Theoretical; Models; 11. Sustainability; Climate change; Territory; 2. Zero hunger; STICS; Agriculture; Resources; Europe; LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSIS; climate change; urban sprawl; Life Sciences & Biomedicine; Conservation of Natural Resources; 330; [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes; CITY; Climate Change; water; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA; URBAN; Urban sprawl; soil; SUSTAINABILITY; Water Supply; MD Multidisciplinary; Humans; [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment; Science & Technology; territory; Water; REGIONAL-SCALE; Models, Theoretical; 15. Life on land; LAND-USE PATTERNS; [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes; 13. Climate action; resources; Environmental Sciences; Software; Forecasting

In a context of increased land and natural resources scarcity, the possibilities for local authorities and stakeholders of anticipating evolutions or testing the impact of envisaged developments through scenario simulation are new challenges. PRECOS's approach integrates data pertaining to the fields of water and soil resources, agronomy, urbanization, land use and infrastructure etc. It is complemented by a socio-economic and regulatory analysis of the territory illustrating its constraints and stakes. A modular architecture articulates modeling software and spatial and temporal representations tools. It produces indicators in three core domains: soil degradation, water and soil resources and agricultural production. As a territory representative of numerous situations of the Mediterranean Basin (urban pressures, overconsumption of spaces, degradation of the milieus), a demonstration in the Crau's area (Southeast of France) has allowed to validate a prototype of the approach and to test its feasibility in a real life situation. Results on the Crau area have shown that, since the beginning of the 16th century, irrigated grasslands are the cornerstones of the anthropic-system, illustrating how successfully men's multi-secular efforts have maintained a balance between environment and local development. But today the ecosystem services are jeopardized firstly by urban sprawl and secondly by climate change. Pre-diagnosis in regions of Emilia-Romagna (Italy) and Valencia (Spain) show that local end-users and policy-makers are interested by this approach. The modularity of indicator calculations and the availability of geo-databases indicate that PRECOS may be up scaled in other socio-economic contexts.