Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part 2. Chlorophyll-a, nutrients and SPM

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2007.01.005
• Publication Date: 2007-01-16T19:38:58Z
• Authors: J. Icarus Allen; Jason T. Holt; Jerry Blackford; Roger Proctor
• Keywords: PROG3 THEME 6 LLM61 HIJ AJWDEC07 ISI REF NISCDEC07 OPM2007 AR0708 UKPUBLICSECTOR JOURNAL; 0106 biological sciences; 14. Life underwater; 01 natural sciences

Abstract Marine systems models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, but far too little attention has been paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to ecosystem processes. Here we describe the application of summary error statistics to a complex 3D model (POLCOMS-ERSEM) run for the period 1988–1989 in the southern North Sea utilising information from the North Sea Project, which collected a wealth of observational data. We demonstrate that to understand model data misfit and the mechanisms creating errors, we need to use a hierarchy of techniques, including simple correlations, model bias, model efficiency, binary discriminator analysis and the distribution of model errors to assess model errors spatially and temporally. We also demonstrate that a linear cost function is an inappropriate measure of misfit. This analysis indicates that the model has some skill for all variables analysed. A summary plot of model performance indicates that model performance deteriorates as we move through the ecosystem from the physics, to the nutrients and plankton.