Analysis of the injury-severity outcomes of maritime accidents using a zero-inflated ordered probit model

• DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.111796
• Publication Date: 2022-07-01T05:41:50Z
• Authors: Huanxin Wang; Zhengjiang Liu; Xinjian Wang; Daozheng Huang; Liang Cao; Jin Wang
• Keywords: Tonnage; Akaike information criterion; Ordered probit; Accident (philosophy); Probit

This study provides an empirical analysis of the injury severity outcomes maritime accidents by exploring influential factors for two underlying states: injury-free state and injury-prone state. The former may reflect generation mechanism with limited potential to result in outcomes, whereas, latter represent when accident falls into category. To account possible presence these regimes, a zero-inflated ordered probit (ZIOP) model is employed using injury-severity data extracted from 1,128 investigation reports between 2000 2019. results indicate that on one hand, capsizing/sinking, hull/machinery damage other type, adverse sea state, poor education background short period holding present rank are more likely be injury-prone. On gross tonnage water depth, distance coast, flag convenience, type impact likelihood severe injuries if marginal effect highlights some interesting effects caused ship manning tonnage, as well location. Akaike's information criteria (AIC), Bayesian (BIC) Vuong's test show ZIOP outperforms traditional can serve alternative accidents.