Quantifying the invasion risk of West Nile virus: Insights from a multi-vector and multi-host SEIR model

• DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100638
• Publication Date: 2023-10-09T09:24:18Z
• Authors: Martina Ferraguti; Afonso Dimas Martins; Yael Artzy-Randrup
• Keywords: West Nile virus

The invasion of vector-borne diseases depends on the type specific features vector and hosts at play. Within Culex pipiens complex, differences in ecology, biology, competence can influence risk West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks. To determine which life-history traits affect WNV into susceptible communities most, we constructed an epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model with three (eco)types, pipiens, Cx. pip. molestus, their hybrids, two vertebrate hosts, birds (as amplifying hosts) humans dead-end hosts). We investigated how feeding preferences transmission rates influenced across different habitats seasons (Spring versus Summer), to investigate impact increasing mosquitoes risk. Our results showed that rate between were parameters most Even though our did not predict any studied environments, found natural displayed highest susceptibility invasion. Pipiens (eco)type acted as primary all habitats. Hybrids, contrary common opinion, minimal involvement transmission. However, it is important interpret study caution due possibility idealized spring summer being reflected field-collected data. could be a tool enhance current surveillance control programs by targeting types especially habitat, are responsive environmental shifts. joint approach based modelling field collected data help reduce wasted time economic costs while maximizing efficiency local public health authorities.