Dynamics of SIQR epidemic model with fractional order derivative

• DOI: 10.1016/j.padiff.2021.100216
• Publication Date: 2021-12-16T18:23:59Z
• Authors: Subrata Paul; Animesh Mahata; Supriya Mukherjee; Banamali Roy
• Keywords: T57-57.97; Applied mathematics. Quantitative methods; Fractional order derivative; SIQR model; 0103 physical sciences; COVID-19; Stability analysis; Numerical simulation; 01 natural sciences; Article; 3. Good health

The dynamics of COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease-2019) transmission are described using a fractional order SIQR model. The stability analysis of the model is performed. To obtain semi-analytic solutions to the model, the Iterative Laplace Transform Method [ILTM] is implemented. Real-time data from COVID-19 cases in India and Brazil is employed to estimate the parameters of the fractional order SIQR model. Numerical solutions obtained using Adam-Bashforth-Moultonpredictor-corrector technique is compared with those obtained by ILTM. It is observed that the fractional order of the derivatives is more effective in studying the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in comparison to integral order of the SIQR model.