The MARINA model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs): Model description and results for China

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.071
• Publication Date: 2016-04-27T20:16:08Z
• Authors: Maryna Strokal; Carolien Kroeze; Mengru Wang; Zhaohai Bai; Lin Ma
• Keywords: Nutrient pollution

Chinese agriculture has been developing fast towards industrial food production systems that discharge nutrient-rich wastewater into rivers. As a result, nutrient export by rivers increasing, resulting in coastal water pollution. We developed Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients seAs (MARINA) for China. The MARINA Nutrient quantifies river nutrients source at the sub-basin scale as function human activities on land. is downscaled version China Global NEWS-2 (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model with an improved approach losses animal and population. use quantify dissolved inorganic organic nitrogen (N) phosphorus (P) six large draining Bohai Gulf (Yellow, Hai, Liao), Yellow Sea (Yangtze, Huai) South (Pearl) 1970, 2000 2050. addressed uncertainties model. Between 1970 N P increased factor 2–8 depending sea form. Thus, risk eutrophication increased. Direct manure contribute 60–78% inputs 20–74% other seas 2000. Sewage important P, synthetic fertilizers N. Over half exported Yangtze Pearl originated downstream middlestream sub-basins. up 70% sub-basins Rivers are drier, thus transport fewer nutrients. For future we calculate further increases main sources pollution This information can formulation effective management options reduce future.