A novel integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of climate and socio-economic drivers on land use and water quality

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.092
• Publication Date: 2016-11-29T06:00:24Z
• Authors: Matthias Zessner; Martin Schönhart; Juraj Parajka; Helene Trautvetter; Hermine Mitter; Mathias Kirchner; Gerold Hepp; Alfred Paul Blaschke; Birgit Strenn; Erwin Schmid
• Keywords: Conservation of Natural Resources; Environmental Engineering; Climate Change; 0207 environmental engineering; 02 engineering and technology; Impact modelling; Water Supply; Water Quality; 11. Sustainability; Climate change; Environmental Chemistry; 14. Life underwater; Waste Management and Disposal; 2. Zero hunger; Socio-economic drivers; Agriculture; Models, Theoretical; 15. Life on land; Pollution; 6. Clean water; Environmental Policy; Socioeconomic Factors; 13. Climate action; Austria; Ecological water quality status; Environmental Monitoring

Changes in climatic conditions will directly affect the quality and quantity of water resources. Further on, they them indirectly through adaptation land use which ultimately influences diffuse nutrient emissions to rivers therefore potentially compliance with good ecological status according EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). We present an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) track quantify direct indirect pollution impacts along policy-economy-climate-agriculture-water interfaces. The IIMF is applied assess socio-economic drivers on agricultural (crop choices, farming practices fertilization levels), river flows risk for exceedance environmental standards determination Austria. This article also presents model interfaces as well validation procedures results single models respect observed state variables such use, flow loads. performance calculations loads (120 monitoring stations) shows a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency 0.73 nitrogen 0.51 phosphorus. Most problematic phosphorus alpine catchments dominated by forests mountainous landscape. About 63% these show deviation between modelled 30% more. In production, much better only cropland 23% permanent grassland areas have > As mainly recognized cropland, suited assessing component WFD status.