Temperature and precipitation change in Malawi: Evaluation of CORDEX-Africa climate simulations for climate change impact assessments and adaptation planning

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.098
• Publication Date: 2018-11-10T16:34:41Z
• Authors: Erika A. Warnatzsch; David S. Reay
• Keywords: Vulnerability; Hindcast

Malawi is highlighted as one of the most vulnerable countries in world to effects climate change. The large uncertainty around future change region remains a barrier adaptation planning. Despite this high potential vulnerability, relatively little research has gone into determining how well available models represent country's climate. This work therefore evaluates ability existing General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate (RCMs) hindcast climatic variables at resolution appropriate for impact assessment We focus on monthly precipitation rate, mean, maximum minimum surface air temperature. compares observed datasets against outputs six ERA-interim driven RCMs 21 GCM-driven from Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative, 11 GCMs which form their boundary conditions. It was found that performance highly influenced by None individual or ensemble assessed paper correlate with any variables. While, they do simulate trending temperature well, simulated are divergent. Based these findings we suggest either would be suitable understanding projected trends, providing better spatial resolution. However, none provide certainty over trends Malawi. As such assessments plans will need designed tested range scenarios. To improve modelling it recommended regional improved higher inclusion impacts water bodies, including Lake