Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them

• DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119855
• Publication Date: 2019-12-26T09:02:46Z
• Authors: Andrea Bonaccorsi; Riccardo Apreda; Gualtiero Fantoni
• Keywords: Futures studies; Technology forecasting

Abstract The paper addresses an issue largely discussed in the field of Forecasting and in many future-oriented scientific and professional disciplines, but less frequently considered in the Foresight literature, particularly in the technology foresight field- i.e. the extent to which biases of human experts influence the foresight process. The paper reviews the literature on cognitive biases and identifies the main areas of technology foresight in which biases are most likely to materialize. It offers a number of examples in which these biases may indeed create distortions. It also reviews the potential impact of several recently introduced methods, in the field of technology foresight and in related areas, to mitigate the distortions and calls for future research in this new field of investigation.