From global to national scenarios: Bridging different models to explore power generation decarbonisation based on insights from socio-technical transition case studies

• DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119882
• Publication Date: 2019-12-18T14:43:40Z
• Authors: Andries F. Hof; Samuel Carrara; Enrica De Cian; Benjamin Pfluger; Mariësse A.E. van...; Harmen Sytze de Boer; Detlef P. van Vuuren
• Keywords: 0211 other engineering and technologies; IAM; 02 engineering and technology; 7. Clean energy; Multi-level perspective; 12. Responsible consumption; Scenarios; 13. Climate action; Management of Technology and Innovation; Taverne; 11. Sustainability; SDG 13 - Climate Action; Climate change; Integrated assessment; Socio-technical transitions; Business and International Management; Applied Psychology

In this paper, we apply two global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and one detailed European electricity system model to explore the consequences of different narrative-based low-carbon scenarios on the electricity system from the global to national scale. The narratives are based on insights from socio-technical transition analysis on niche-innovations. The main aim of this exercise is to examine the solution space in low-carbon scenarios for electricity supply from the global to national scale, which is largely neglected when focusing on cost-optimal solutions only. We show that taking into account insights from socio-technical transition analysis can have large impacts on the projected transition strategy, especially regarding relatively costly technologies that currently have a high momentum. For instance, we find that the share of offshore wind in electricity generation in Europe is less than 3% or up to 27% by 2050, depending on the underlying narrative. These ranges are useful input for policy-makers, as they show the degree of flexibility in mitigation options. Furthermore, our analysis shows that combining IAMs with more detailed sectoral models illuminates the challenges on a more detailed geographical scale, for instance regarding storage requirements and the need for interconnectivity across European borders.