Outlooks, explorations and normative scenarios: Approaches to global energy futures compared

• DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120736
• Publication Date: 2021-04-09T08:41:44Z
• Authors: Jim Skea; Renée van Diemen; Joana Portugal-Pe...; Alaa Al Khourdajie
• Keywords: Benchmarking; Exploratory research; energy demand

This paper compares recent global energy scenarios developed by governments, international bodies, businesses and the scientific community. We divide into three broad classes: outlooks which extrapolate current trends anticipate policy developments; exploratory may consider disruptions; normative derive system pathways consistent with a long-term goal. Many organisations are starting to blend outlooks, approaches. The covers in primary demand 2040, snapshots of mix drivers demand, evolution projections years. find sharp divergences between compatible Paris Agreement on climate change. All published imply that world is not an pathway Agreement. conclude assessment emerging themes including: scenario benchmarking group think; adaptation real plausibility different types scenarios. propose more dialogue developers from community those working governments commercial could be beneficial. Research focusing organisational processes through usefully extend this work.