Impacts of atmospheric stilling and climate warming on cyanobacterial blooms: An individual-based modelling approach

• DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2022.118814
• Publication Date: 2022-07-04T21:25:25Z
• Authors: Mohammad Hassan R...; David P. Hamilton; Amir Etemad-Shahidi; Fernanda Helfer
• Keywords: Microcystis; Stratification (seeds); Bloom

Harmful algal blooms of the freshwater cyanobacteria genus Microcystis are a global problem and expected to intensify with climate change. In studies change impacts on blooms, atmospheric stilling has not been considered. Stilling is occur in some regions world warming, it will affect lake stratification regimes. We tested if could water column distributions using novel individual-based model (IBM). Using IBM coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, we assessed responses colonial biomass wind speed decrease air temperature increase projected under future climate. The altered colony size relationships turbulence from literature, included light, temperature, nutrient effects growth input data shallow urban lake. results show that dynamic variations critical for accurate prediction cyanobacterial bloom development decay. Colony (mean variability) increased more than six-fold 20% compared 2 °C temperature. Our suggest needs be projections changes frequency, distribution magnitude buoyant, colony-forming