Meltwater runoff in a changing climate (1951–2099) at Chhota Shigri Glacier, Western Himalaya, Northern India

• DOI: 10.1017/aog.2017.13
• Publication Date: 2017-09-18T09:49:19Z
• Authors: Markus Engelhardt; Paul Leclercq; Trude Eidhammer; Pankaj Kumar; Oskar Landgren; Roy Rasmussen
• Keywords: Snowmelt; Meltwater; Glacier mass balance; Water balance; Representative Concentration Pathways

ABSTRACT Meltwater runoff in the catchment area containing Chhota Shigri glacier (Western Himalaya) is simulated for period 1951–2099. The applied mass-balance model forced by downscaled products from four regional climate models with different horizontal resolution. For future scenarios we use high resolution time series of 5 km grid spacing, generated using newly developed Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model. meteorological input to 300 m an ice flow provides annually updated calculations. calculates daily snow accumulation, melt, runoff, as well individual components (glacial snowmelt and rain). resulting decreases 35% (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario) 70% (RCP 8.5 2099 relative 2000. average annual mass balance over whole (1951–2099) was –0.4 (±0.3) w.e. a –1 . Average does not differ substantially between two scenarios. However, years after 2040 our results show shift towards earlier onset that increases May June, reduced melt August September. This much stronger pronounced RCP scenario.