Estimation of measles reproduction ratios and prospects for elimination of measles by vaccination in some Western European countries

• DOI: 10.1017/s095026880100601x
• Publication Date: 2003-10-16T06:20:52Z
• Authors: J. WALLINGA; D. LÉVY-BRUHL; N. J. GAY; C. H. WACHMANN
• Keywords: Basic reproduction number

The objective of this study is to estimate the measles reproduction ratio for eight Western European vaccination programmes. Because many plausible age-structured transmission patterns result in a similar description observations, it not possible unique value ratio. A method developed bounds and confidence intervals values ratios using maximum likelihood methods. Lower upper basic are estimated be 7·17 (95% CI 7·14–7·20) 45·41 9·77–49·57), corresponding lower on critical vaccine coverage 86·6% 98·1%. Of evaluated programmes, four have below bound allow persist, at may eventually eliminate measles.