A model of COVID-19 transmission to understand the effectiveness of the containment measures: application to data from France

• DOI: 10.1017/s0950268820002162
• Publication Date: 2020-09-22T02:51:49Z
• Authors: P. Zongo; M. Zorom; G. Mophou; R. Dorville; C. Beaumont
• Keywords: Social distance; Containment (computer programming); Epidemic model; Pandemic; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Basic reproduction number

Abstract The main objective of this paper is to address the following question: are containment measures imposed by most world governments effective and sufficient stop epidemic COVID-19 beyond lock-down period? In paper, we propose a mathematical model which allows us investigate analyse problem. We show means reproductive number, ${\cal R}_0$ that appear have slowed growth outbreak. Nevertheless, these remain only as long very large fraction population, p , greater than critical value $1-1/{\cal remains confined. Using French current data, give some simulation experiments with five scenarios including: (i) validation estimated 93%, (ii) study effectiveness measures, (iii) large-scale testing, (iv) social distancing wearing masks (v) taking into account combination test detection infected individuals linear progressive easing restrictions. latter scenario was shown be at overcoming outbreak if transmission rate decreases 75% number tests multiplied three. also noticed studied in our taken separately then second wave might occur least far parameter values unchanged.