Ambient Measurements of Hazardous Air Pollutants in the United States Routinely Exceed Predictions from Screening-Level Exposure Models

• DOI: 10.1021/acs.estlett.4c00917
• Publication Date: 2024-12-17T18:06:13Z
• Authors: Lauren E. Padilla; Daniel R. Peters; Elizabeth J. Mohr; Ramón A. Alvarez
• Keywords: Hazardous air pollutants; Exposure Assessment

Hazardous air pollutant (HAP) emission regulations in the US often rely on modeled estimates of ambient exposures. Model accuracy compared to real-world measurements HAPs is crucial for understanding and mitigating exposure associated health harms. While previous work shows are higher than regulatory model estimates, implications risk assessments rarely discussed. We provide a comprehensive comparison measured concentrations at 489 monitoring sites 79 HAPs. quantify how model-measurement discrepancies affect estimation adverse effects. Measurements were 74% comparisons over all monitors, chemicals, years assessed, with median 2 (IQR 1–9) times estimates. exceeded noncancer effect thresholds, while did not (model false negatives) nine pollutants. Adjusting bias two industrial centers, we found number people multipollutant above EPA's acceptable excess lifetime cancer increased by factor 30 Houston, Texas, 13 Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Our results imply that relying exclusively models like those evaluated likely underestimate spatial extent magnitude hazards risk.