Decoding the Spatiotemporal Complexities of the Permafrost Carbon Feedback With Multimodal Ensemble Learning

• DOI: 10.1029/2024jh000402
• Publication Date: 2025-03-12T04:16:48Z
• Authors: B. A. Gay; N. J. Pastick; J. D. Watts; A. H. Armstrong; K. R. Miner; C. E. Miller

AbstractComplex nonlinear relationships exist between the permafrost thermal state, active layer thickness, and terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics. In Arctic and boreal Alaska, significant uncertainties characterize the spatiotemporal rate and magnitude of permafrost degradation and the permafrost carbon feedback, with increasing recognition of the importance of thawing mechanisms. The challenges of monitoring sub‐surface phenomena with remote sensing technology further complicate the issue. There is an urgent need to understand how and to what extent thawing permafrost destabilizes the carbon balance in Alaska and to characterize the feedback involved. In this research, we use our artificial intelligence‐driven model GeoCryoAI to quantify permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska. The GeoCryoAI model uses a hybridized process‐constrained ensemble learning framework to simultaneously ingest, scale, and analyze in situ measurements, remote sensing observations, and process‐based modeling outputs with disparate spatiotemporal sampling and data densities. We evaluated prior naïve (a) persistence and (b) teacher forcing approaches relative to (c) time‐delayed GeoCryoAI simulations, yielding the following error metrics (RMSE) for active layer thickness (ALT), methane (CH4), and carbon dioxide (CO2), respectively: 1.997, 1.327, 1.007 cm [1963–2022]; 0.884, 0.715, 0.694 nmol CH4km−2 month−1 [1994–2022]; 1.906, 0.697, 0.213 µmol CO2km−2 month−1 [1994–2022]. Our approach overcomes traditional model inefficiencies and resolves spatiotemporal disparities. GeoCryoAI captures abrupt and persistent changes while introducing a novel methodology for assimilating contemporaneous information at various scales. We describe GeoCryoAI, the methodology, our results, and plans for future applications.