Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04423-1
• Publication Date: 2018-05-31T14:21:31Z
• Authors: Juan Alcalde; Stephanie Flude; Mark Wilkinson; Gareth Johnson; Katriona Edlmann; Clare E. Bond; Vivian Scott; Stuart M. V. Gilf...; Xènia Ogaya; R. Stuart Haszeldine
• Keywords: Leakage (economics)

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO2 reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. Here we present numerical program that calculates leakage the atmosphere over 10,000 years. This combines quantitative estimates geological subsurface retention, surface leakage. We calculate realistically well-regulated regions with moderate well densities has 50% probability below 0.0008% per year, 98% injected retained An unrealistic scenario, where is inadequately regulated, more than 78% will be Our modelling results suggest secure climate change mitigation option, but note long-term behaviour key uncertainty.