Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07999-w
• Publication Date: 2019-01-03T14:09:15Z
• Authors: Christopher J. Smith; Piers M. Forster; Myles Allen; Jan Fuglestvedt; Richard J. Millar; Joeri Rogelj; Kirsten Zickfeld
• Keywords: Commit

Abstract Committed warming describes how much future can be expected from historical emissions due to inertia in the climate system. It is usually defined terms of level above present for an abrupt halt emissions. Owing socioeconomic constraints, this situation unlikely, so we focus on committed present-day fossil fuel assets. Here show that if carbon-intensive infrastructure phased out at end its design lifetime 2018, there a 64% chance peak global mean temperature rise remains below 1.5 °C. Delaying mitigation until 2030 considerably reduces likelihood °C would attainable even rate retirement was accelerated. Although challenges laid by Paris Agreement are daunting, indicate possible and with ambitious immediate emission reduction across all sectors.