Genetic evidence for the association between COVID-19 epidemic severity and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22366-y
• Publication Date: 2021-04-12T10:09:07Z
• Authors: Manon Ragonnet-Cr...; Olivia Boyd; Lily Geidelberg; David Jorgensen; Fabricia F. Nasci...; Igor Siveroni; Robert A. Johnson; Marc Baguelin; Zulma M. Cucunubá; Elita Jauneikaite; Swapnil Mishra; Oliver J. Watson; Neil Ferguson; Anne Cori; Christl A. Donnelly; Erik Volz
• Keywords: Pandemic; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Public Health Interventions

Abstract Unprecedented public health interventions including travel restrictions and national lockdowns have been implemented to stem the COVID-19 epidemic, but effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical is still debated. We carried out a phylogenetic analysis more than 29,000 publicly available whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences from 57 locations estimate time that epidemic originated in different places. These estimates were examined relation dates most stringent each location as well number cumulative deaths phylodynamic size. Here we report elapsed between origin maximum intervention associated with measures severity explains 11% variance reported one month after intervention. Locations where strong earlier experienced much less severe morbidity mortality during period study.