Ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22406-7
• Publication Date: 2021-04-09T10:04:15Z
• Authors: Wei Wang; T. C. Chakraborty; Wei Xiao; Xuhui Lee
• Keywords: Albedo (alchemy); Shortwave radiation

Abstract Climate models generally predict higher precipitation in a future warmer climate. Whether the intensification occurred response to historical warming continues be subject of debate. Here, using observations ocean surface energy balance as hydrological constraint, we find that intensified at rate 0.68 ± 0.51% K −1 , which is slightly than multi-model mean calculation for climate (0.38 1.18% ). The reduction albedo associated with melting sea ice positive contributor temperature sensitivity. On other hand, observed increase heat storage weakens precipitation. In this framework, incident shortwave radiation and exert dominant control on sensitivity, explaining 91% inter-model spread across scenarios Intergovernmental Panel Change Fifth Assessment Report.