Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26355-z
• Publication Date: 2021-10-22T10:09:32Z
• Authors: Dan Tong; David J. Farnham; Lei Duan; Qiang Zhang; Nathan S. Lewis; Ken Caldeira; Steven J. Davis
• Keywords: Variable renewable energy

If future net-zero emissions energy systems rely heavily on solar and wind resources, spatial temporal mismatches between resource availability electricity demand may challenge system reliability. Using 39 years of hourly reanalysis data (1980-2018), we analyze the ability resources to meet in 42 countries, varying hypothetical scale mix renewable generation as well storage capacity. Assuming perfect transmission annual equal demand, but no storage, find most reliable are wind-heavy satisfy countries' 72-91% hours (83-94% by adding 12 h storage). Yet even which >90% hundreds unmet occur annually. Our analysis helps quantify power, energy, utilization rates additional management, or curtailment, benefits regional aggregation.