Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40599-x
• Publication Date: 2023-08-24T10:02:31Z
• Authors: Samuel Lüthi; Christopher Fairless; Erich M. Fischer; Noah Scovronick; Ben Armstrong; Micheline De Sous...; Yue Leon Guo; Yuming Guo; Yasushi Honda; Veronika Huber; Jan Kyselý; Eric Lavigne; Dominic Royé; Niilo Ryti; Susana Silva; Aleš Urban; Antonio Gasparrini; David N. Bresch; Ana M. Vicedo-Cab...
• Keywords: Extreme heat; Excess mortality; Heat wave

Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear much change will increase frequency and severity extreme summer seasons high impact In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries model large ensemble data identify probable past future highly impactful seasons. Across most locations, counts 1-in-100 year season in 2000 would be expected once every ten twenty years 2020. These return periods are projected further shorten under warming levels 1.5 °C 2 °C, where eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight urgent need strong mitigation reduce impacts lives.