Prediction of habitat suitability for Patrinia sibirica Juss. in the Southern Urals

• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-99018-0
• Publication Date: 2021-10-04T17:14:08Z
• Authors: Nikolai Fedorov; Aliya Kutueva; Albert Muldashev; Oksana Mikhaylenko; Vasiliy Martynenko; Yulia Fedorova
• Keywords: Patrinia; Science; Altitude; Climate; Climate Change; Q; R; Forests; 15. Life on land; 01 natural sciences; Article; Russia; 13. Climate action; Medicine; Ecosystem; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Abstract The paper presents the results of predictions habitat persistence for rare relict Pleistocene floristic complex Patrinia sibirica (L.) Juss. in Southern Urals under various forecasted climate change scenarios. Climate variables from CHELSA BIOCLIM, elevation data (GMTED2010) and coarse fragment content top level soil were used as predictors modeling MaxEnt software. impact on P. habitats RCP4.5 RCP8.5 scenarios calculated an ensemble four general circulation models has been analyzed. shown that changes suitability depend altitude. Deterioration could be attributed to a temperature increase mountain forest locations, precipitation driest quarter forest-steppe locations. In both cases, this leads expansion shrub vegetation. Monitoring other species can play major role predictions, their massive decline would constitute climatic exceed ranges fluctuations Holocene.