Iterative data-driven forecasting of the transmission and management of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 using social interventions at the county-level

• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-04899-4
• Publication Date: 2022-01-18T11:03:20Z
• Authors: Ken Newcomb; Morgan E. Smith; Rose E. Donohue; Sebastian Wyngaard; Caleb Reinking; Christopher R. Sweet; Marissa J. Levine; Thomas R. Unnasch; Edwin Michael
• Keywords: Pandemic; Social distance; Lift (data mining)

Abstract The control of the initial outbreak and spread SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 via application population-wide non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures have led to remarkable successes in dampening pandemic globally. However, with countries beginning ease or lift these fully restart activities, concern is growing regarding impacts that such reopening societies could on subsequent transmission virus. While mathematical models COVID-19 played important roles evaluating for curbing virus transmission, a key need are able effectively capture effects spatial social heterogeneities drive epidemic dynamics observed at local community level. Iterative forecasting uses new incoming epidemiological behavioral data sequentially update locally-applicable can overcome this gap, potentially resulting better predictions policy actions. Here, we present development one data-driven iterative modelling tool based publicly available an extended SEIR model SARS-CoV-2 county level United States. Using from state Florida, demonstrate utility system exploring outcomes proposed by makers containing course pandemic. We provide comprehensive results showing how locally identified be employed accessing societal tradeoffs using specific protective strategies. conclude it been possible more disruptive interventions related movement restriction/social distancing earlier if were accompanied widespread testing contact tracing. These intensified also brought about low- some medium-incidence settings first, supporting deployment geographically-phased approach economy Florida. made our policymakers health officials use their own locales, so efficient coordinated strategy controlling region-wide developed successfully implemented.