Non-periodic outbreaks of recurrent epidemics and its network modelling

• DOI: 10.1038/srep16010
• Publication Date: 2015-11-02T10:54:43Z
• Authors: Muhua Zheng; Chaoqing Wang; Jie Zhou; Ming Zhao; Shuguang Guan; Yong Zou; Zonghua Liu
• Keywords: Epidemic model

Abstract The study of recurrent epidemic outbreaks has been attracting great attention for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate. Based on a large number real data from different cities, we find that besides the seasonal periodic influenza, there are also non-periodic outbreaks, i.e. non-seasonal or non-annual behaviors. To understand how non-periodicity shows up, present network model SIRS with both time-dependent infection rate and small possibility persistent seeds, representing influences larger annual variation environment generated spontaneously in nature, respectively. Our numerical simulations reveal can reproduce epidemics main features influenza data. Further, depend not only density susceptible agents, indicating they necessary conditions patterns non-periodicity. A theoretical analysis based Markov dynamics presented to explain results. This finding may be significance control epidemics.