A Methodology to Evaluate the Vulnerability of the Natural Gas Supply Chain Based on Set Pair Analysis and Markov Chain

• DOI: 10.1061/jpsea2.pseng-1366
• Publication Date: 2023-03-09T02:52:22Z
• Authors: Weichao Yu; Xianbin Zheng; Feng Wen; Lin Li; Yuanzhi Yue; Feng Shi; Hong Yang; Yang Liu; Xiaoben Liu
• Keywords: Vulnerability; Midstream

In this study, a methodology to evaluate and predict the vulnerability of natural gas supply chain is proposed, both dynamics stochasticity are considered. methodology, evaluation system established firstly based on definition chain, composed 12 indicators that cover upstream, midstream, downstream chain. Then, combination weighting method analytic hierarchy process entropy employed determine weight each indicator. Finally, dynamic prediction models developed set pair analysis Markov Furthermore, applied in China. According results, level year 2021 relatively vulnerable, China was stable last 10 years, but it developing toward more vulnerable trend. Moreover, some suggestions reduce China’s proposed as well.