El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0710860105
• Publication Date: 2008-12-06T02:09:41Z
• Authors: M. Latif; N. S. Keenlyside
• Keywords: Tipping point (physics); Multivariate ENSO index; Forcing (mathematics); Global Change

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on global system ecology of Pacific. Any strong change ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic ecological consequences. Most models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. response warming differs strongly from model thus highly uncertain. Some an increase amplitude, others a decrease, virtually no change. Extremely changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any models. Nevertheless, some interesting dynamics can be inferred observations integrations. Although envisaged physical system, smooth transitions it may give rise biological, chemical, even socioeconomic systems. For example, weakening Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient Hadley Centre (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back mid-twenty-first century, which turn drove nonlinear atmospheric CO 2 , accelerating warming.