Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1409822111
• Publication Date: 2014-10-21T06:45:44Z
• Authors: Philip J. Ward; Brenden Jongman; Matti Kummu; Michael D. Dettinger; Frederiek C. Sper...; Hessel C. Winsemius
• Keywords: ta212; climate variability; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; flood hazard; Benzocaine; ta1172; flood risk; El Niño Southern Oscillation; Models, Theoretical; 15. Life on land; 01 natural sciences; Floods; 13. Climate action; global scale; SDG 13 - Climate Action; ta519; ta116; ta512; ta218; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Significance El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects hydrological processes around the globe. However, little is known about its influence on socioeconomic impacts of flooding (i.e., flood risk). We present, to our knowledge, first global assessment ENSO’s risk in terms economic damage and exposed population gross domestic product. show that reliable anomalies exist during ENSO years basins spanning almost half Earth’s surface. These results are significant for flood-risk management. Because can be predicted with lead times several seasons some skill, findings pave way developing probabilistic projections. could used improved disaster planning, such as temporarily increasing food medicine stocks by relief agencies.