Impact of human mobility on the emergence of dengue epidemics in Pakistan

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1504964112
• Publication Date: 2015-09-09T02:21:21Z
• Authors: Amy Wesolowski; Taimur Qureshi; Maciej F. Boni; Pål Roe Sundsøy; Michael A. Johansson; Syed Basit Rasheed; Kenth Engø-Monsen; Caroline O. Buckee
• Keywords: Preparedness; Pandemic

Significance Dengue virus has rapidly spread into new human populations due to travel and changing suitability for the mosquito vector, causing severe febrile illness significant mortality. Accurate predictive models identifying vulnerability dengue outbreaks are necessary epidemic preparedness containment of virus. Here we show that an epidemiological model transmission in travelers, based on mobility data from ∼40 million mobile phone subscribers climatic information, predicts geographic timing epidemics throughout country. We generate fine-scale dynamic risk maps with direct application preparedness.