Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 °C warmer climate

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2017796117
• Publication Date: 2020-11-10T01:30:52Z
• Authors: Lorenzo Rosa; Davide Danilo Chi...; Matteo Sangiorgio; Areidy Aracely Be...; Maria Cristina Rulli; Paolo D’Odorico; Inez Fung
• Keywords: 2. Zero hunger; Agricultural Irrigation; Climate; Climate Change; Rain; Water; Agriculture; climate change | water sustainability | sustainable irrigation expansion | water scarcity | agriculture; 15. Life on land; 01 natural sciences; Crop Production; 6. Clean water; 12. Responsible consumption; Water Supply; 13. Climate action; Physical Sciences; 11. Sustainability; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Significance Climate change is expected to reshape the distribution of irrigated lands. Using climatic projections from three global climate models, we investigate global patterns of irrigation water demand and availability in 1.5 °C and 3 °C warmer climates. We find that in up to 35% of currently rain-fed croplands, irrigation could be expanded as an adaptation strategy to climate change without negative environmental externalities on freshwater resources. Irrigation expansion could reduce vulnerability to water stress and improve crop productivity to feed up to 300 million additional people using small-scale water storage and up to 1.4 billion additional people using large-scale water storage. This work contributes to identifying target regions where investments in sustainable intensification of agriculture through irrigation expansion are needed.