Rapid attribution of the record-breaking heatwave event in North China in June 2023 and future risks

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad0dd9
• Publication Date: 2023-12-07T17:22:35Z
• Authors: Cheng Qian; Yangbo Ye; Jiacheng Jiang; Yangyang Zhong; Yuting Zhang; Izidine Pinto; Cunrui Huang; Sihan Li; Ke Wei
• Keywords: heatwaves; coupled model approach; Science; Physics; QC1-999; Q; 0207 environmental engineering; 02 engineering and technology; empirical approach; Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering; Environmental sciences; human influences; anthropogenic climate change; event attribution; GE1-350; TD1-1066

Abstract A record-breaking heatwave event occurred in North China from 22 to 24 June 2023, with temperatures >40 °C at many meteorological stations. This marked the first time that Beijing had reached or exceeded 40 for three consecutive days. However, extent which such exceptional events are related anthropogenic climate change remains unclear. It is also unclear how frequent and intense strong will be future. We carried out a rapid attribution analysis address these questions. Our findings show return period of this three-day about 111 years (24.3, +∞) 2023 state. Both empirical coupled model approaches consistently showed intensity 2023-like has significantly increased by least 1.0 (range 0.8 °C–1.3 °C) due change. Future projections indicate likely occur 1.6 1.3–2.1) times throughout remainder century 0.5 0.2 °C–0.8 more than those under even if carbon neutrality achieved based on very low CO 2 emissions scenario simulations. For intermediate scenario, occurrence probability region end 5.5 4.9–6.3) climate, an 2.9 2.4 °C–3.1 higher climate. These highlight need adaptation measures heatwaves achieved.