Dynamic statistical model for predicting the risk of death among older Chinese people, using longitudinal repeated measures of the frailty index: a prospective cohort study

• DOI: 10.1093/ageing/afaa056
• Publication Date: 2020-03-12T12:36:01Z
• Authors: Qi Chen; Bihan Tang; Yinghong Zhai; Yuqi Chen; Zhichao Jin; Hedong Han; Yongqing Gao; Cheng Wu; Tao Chen; Jia He
• Keywords: Longitudinal Study

Abstract Background Frailty is a common characteristic of older people with the ageing process. We aimed to develop and validate dynamic statistical prediction model calculate risk death in aged ≥65 years, using longitudinal frailty index (FI). Methods One training dataset three validation datasets from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) were used our study. The 1 3 included data 9,748, 7,459, 9,093 6,368 individuals, respectively. 35 health deficits construct FI based on repeated measurement at every wave CLHLS. A joint was build considering both baseline covariates FI. Areas under time-dependent receiver operating curves (AUCs) calibration employed assess predictive performance model. Results linear mixed-effects time, sex, residence (city, town, or rural), living alone, smoking alcohol consumption subject-specific built FI, age, residence, sex an FI–age interaction term. AUCs ranged 0.64 0.84, showed good ability. Conclusions developed that able update predictions as updated measurements became available. This could be estimate individuals >65 years.