Future predictions of body mass index and overweight prevalence in Australia, 2005-2025

• DOI: 10.1093/heapro/dar036
• Publication Date: 2011-06-17T22:30:27Z
• Authors: M. M. Haby; A. Markwick; A. Peeters; J. Shaw; T. Vos
• Keywords: Male; Adolescent; 2739 Public Health; Body Mass Index; Cohort Studies; 03 medical and health sciences; Prevalance; Sex Factors; 0302 clinical medicine; Prevalence; Humans; Body Weights and Measures; Obesity; Child; Body mass index; 360; 2. Zero hunger; Environmental and Occupational Health; Age Factors; Australia; Overweight; Health Surveys; 3. Good health; Cross-Sectional Studies; Child, Preschool; Female; 3306 Health (social science); Forecasting

To predict current and future body mass index (BMI) prevalence of overweight obesity in Australian children adults based on sex, age year birth (cohort). These predictions are needed for population health planning evaluation. Data were drawn from 11 cross-sectional national or state surveys conducted Australia between 1969 2004. included representative samples (n= 27,635) 43,447) aged 5 years older with measured height weight data. Multiple linear regression analyses log-transformed BMI data to determine the independent effects (cohort) ln(BMI) males females, respectively. Regression coefficients cohort obtained these applied National Nutrition Survey 1995 set mean (BMI 25-29.99 kg/m(2)) ≥ 30 2005, 2015 2025. Based past trends, is predicted continue increase both females across span. This would result increases 0.4 0.8% per year, such that by 2025 around one-third 5-19 olds will be obese as 83% 75% 20 over. The this study have significant impacts disease burden, healthcare costs need prevention treatment programmes.