The Surgical Mortality Probability Model

• DOI: 10.1097/sla.0b013e31824b45af
• Publication Date: 2012-03-14T13:04:07Z
• Authors: Laurent G. Glance; Stewart J. Lustik; Edward L. Hannan; Turner M. Osler; Dana B. Mukamel; Feng Qian; Andrew W. Dick
• Keywords: Risk of mortality

To develop a 30-day mortality risk index for noncardiac surgery that can be used to communicate information patients and guide clinical management at the "point-of-care," by surgeons hospitals internally audit their quality of care.Clinicians rely on Revised Cardiac Risk Index quantify cardiac complications in undergoing surgery. Because from causes accounts many perioperative deaths, there is also need simple bedside predict all-cause after surgery.Retrospective cohort study 298,772 during 2005 2007 using American College Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database.The 9-point S-MPM (Surgical Mortality Probability Model) was derived empirically includes three factors: ASA (American Society Anesthesiologists) physical status, emergency class. Patients with status I, II, III, IV or V were assigned either 0, 2, 4, 5, 6 points, respectively; intermediate- high-risk procedures 1 2 point. scores less than 5 had predicted 0.50%, whereas score between 1.5% 4.0%. greater more 10%. exhibited excellent discrimination (C statistic, 0.897) acceptable calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic 13.0, P = 0.023) validation data set.Thirty-day accurately accurate based readily available bedside. This may play useful role facilitating shared decision making, developing implementing risk-reduction strategies, guiding improvement efforts.