Simulating the infected population and spread trend of 2019-nCov under different policy by EIR model

• DOI: 10.1101/2020.02.10.20021519
• Publication Date: 2020-02-12T14:35:12Z
• Authors: Hao Xiong; Huili Yan
• Keywords: Pandemic; Epidemic model

Summary Background Chinese government has taken strong measures in response to the epidemic of new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Jan.23, 2020. The number confirmed infected individuals are still increasing rapidly. Estimating accurate population and future trend spreading under control is significant urgent. There have been reports external icon spread an patient with no symptoms a close contact, which means incubation may possibility infectiousness. However, traditional transmission model, Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) assumes that exposed individual being but without Thus, estimating populations based on SEIR model existing literatures seems too far more than official reported data. Methods Here, we inferred could be by (incubation) individuals. Then, provide Exposed-identified-Recovered (EIR) simulated processes free propagation phase extremely phase. estimate size forecast development epidemics prevention interventions. According characters 2019-nCov, construct novel EIR compartment system dynamics model. This integrates two phases spreading: before intervention after intervention. We assume 2019-nCov firstly then started take quarantine measures. Use latest data National Health Commission People’s Republic China, basic parameters reproduction 2019-nCov. this simulate epidemics. Both different policy scenarios estimated. trends rate action starting date compared. Findings In our baseline scenario, strict actions, numbers fit very well. Simulation results tells that, if relaxed or later Jan. 23, 2020, peak identified would greatly increased, elimination also delayed. reproductive for 2019-nCoV was 2.7. And simulation scenario will 49093 at Feb.16, 2020 eliminated end March tell great effect spreading. Specifically, reduced 100% less 63%, threshold spreading, never out. And, delayed 1 day increase about 6351 If period 3 days 7 days, 21621 65929 individuals, thus up 70714 115022 Interpretation Given controlled what China it three months. keep quick generation (27 equal sum period) start time point control. should insisted until wiped Other domestic places overseas interventions immediately. Generally, earlier efficiently mitigate outbreaks other cities all over world 2019-nCoV.