Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among workers returning to Bihar gives snapshot of COVID across India

• DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.26.20138545
• Publication Date: 2020-06-28T15:45:18Z
• Authors: Anup Malani; Manoj Mohanan; Chanchal Kumar; Jake Kramer; Vaidehi Tandel
• Keywords: 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Snapshot (computer storage)

Abstract India has reported the fourth highest number of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases worldwide. Because there is little community testing for COVID, this case count likely an underestimate. When partially exited from lockdown on May 4, 2020, millions daily laborers left cities their rural family homes. RNA a near-random sample returning to state Bihar used estimate positive rate COVID across 6-week period immediately following initial lifting India’s lockdown. Positive rates among are only moderately correlated with, and 21% higher than, Indian states’ official reports, which not based random sampling. Higher prevalence may also reflect greater spread in crowded poor communities such as slums.