Beware That COVID-19 Would Be Worse in Winter: A Study of a Global Panel of 1236 Regions

• DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.29.20164152
• Publication Date: 2020-07-30T18:43:56Z
• Authors: Chen Zhang; Hua Liao; Eric Strobl; Hui Li; Ru Li; Steen Solvang Jensen; Ying Zhang
• Keywords: Economic interventionism; Robustness; Social distance

Abstract It is believe that weather conditions such as temperature and humidity have effects on COVID-19 transmission. However, these are not clear due to the limited observations difficulties in separating impacts of social distancing. data social-economic features 1236 regions world (1112 at provincial level 124 countries with small land area) were collected. A Large-scale satellite was combined a regression analysis model explore relative spreading, well possible transmission risk by seasonal cycles. The result show shown be negatively correlated throughout world. Further, effect almost linear based our samples, uncertainty surrounding any non-linear effects. Government intervention (e.g. lockdown policies) lower population movement contributed decrease new daily case ratio. conclusions withstand several robustness checks, observation scales maximum/minimum temperature. Weather decisive factor transmission, government public awareness, could contribute mitigation spreading virus. As drops winter, possibly speeds up again. deserves dynamic policy mitigate winter.