A Comparative Study to Find a Suitable Model for an Improved Real-Time Monitoring of The Interventions to Contain COVID-19 Outbreak in The High Incidence States of India

• DOI: 10.1101/2020.09.14.20190447
• Publication Date: 2020-09-15T20:55:52Z
• Authors: G.S Amrutha; Abhibhav Sharma; Anudeepti Sharma
• Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Pandemic

Abstract Background On March 11, 2020, The World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as a global pandemic. There emerged need for reliable models to estimate the imminent incidence and overall assessment of outbreak, in order develop effective interventions control strategies. One such vital metrics monitoring transmission trends over time is time-dependent reproduction number ( R t ). an secondary cases caused by infected individual at during given that certain population proportion already infected. Misestimated particularly concerning when probing association between changes rate implemented policies. In this paper, we substantiate implementation instantaneous ins ) method conventional viz case ), unmasking real-time estimation ability both methodologies using credible datasets. Materials & Methods We employed daily dataset COVID-19 India high states . compared projection obtained through these methods corroborating those are containing conducting efficient testing. were estimated R0 EpiEstim packages respectively software 4.0.0. Results Although, selected higher lockdown phases (March 25 - June 1, 2020) subsequently stabilizes co-equally unlock phase (June 1-August 23, 2020), demonstrated variations accordance with while remained generalized under- overestimated. A larger difference estimates was also observed Conclusion Of two methods, elucidated better progression outbreak conceptually empirically, than However, suggest considering assumptions corroborated implementations which may result misleading conclusions real world.