Evolution of thermal physiology alters the projected range of threespine stickleback under climate change

• DOI: 10.1101/2021.02.25.432865
• Publication Date: 2021-02-26T19:00:13Z
• Authors: Sara J.S. Wuitchik; Stephanie Mogensen; Tegan N. Barry; Antoine Paccard; Heather A. Jamniczky; Rowan D.H. Barrett; Sean M. Rogers
• Keywords: Trait; Species distribution; Environmental niche modelling

Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict range shifts but could be unreliable under climate change scenarios because they do not account for evolution. The thermal physiology of a species is key determinant and thus incorporating trait evolution into SDMs might expected alter projected ranges. We identified genetic basis physiological behavioural traits that evolve in response temperature natural populations threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Using these data, we created geographic projections using mechanistic niche area approach two scenarios. Under both scenarios, data was either static (‘no evolution’ models), allowed at observed evolutionary rates (‘evolution’ or rate scaled by the variance explained quantitative loci (QTL; ‘scaled models). show their substantially altered ranges widespread panmictic marine population, with over 7-fold increases when evolve. Evolution-informed should improve precision forecasting dynamics change, aid application management protection biodiversity.