The changing impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic

• DOI: 10.1101/2022.03.10.22272222
• Publication Date: 2022-03-13T10:25:11Z
• Authors: Jamie A. Cohen; Robyn M. Stuart; Jasmina Panovska-...; Edinah Mudimu; Romesh G. Abeysuriya; Cliff C. Kerr; Michael Famulare; Daniel J. Klein
• Keywords: Pandemic; Redress

The Omicron wave has left a global imprinting of immunity which changes the COVID landscape. In this study, we simulate six hypothetical variants emerging over next year and evaluate impact existing improved vaccines. We base our study on South Africa’s infection- vaccination-derived immunity. Our findings illustrate that variant-chasing vaccines will only add value above in setting where variant emerges if can shorten window between introduction vaccine deployment to under three weeks, an impossible time-frame without significant NPI use. This strategy may have utility, depending rate spread from setting. Broadly neutralizing durable next-generation could avert three-times as many deaths immune-evading compared results suggest it is crucial develop redress inequities distribution tackle future variants.