Impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on mortality in rural coastal Kenya

• DOI: 10.1101/2022.04.06.22273516
• Publication Date: 2022-04-08T05:15:47Z
• Authors: M Otiende; A Nyaguara; C Bottomley; D Walumbe; G Mochamah; D Amadi; C Nyundo; EW Kagucia; AO Etyang; IMO Adetifa; E Maitha; E Chondo; E Nzomo; R Aman; M Mwangangi; P Amoth; K Kasera; W Ng’ang’a; E Barasa; B Tsofa; J Mwangangi; P Bejon; A Agweyu; TN Williams; JAG Scott
• Keywords: Excess mortality; Seroprevalence; Case fatality rate

ABSTRACT Background The impact of COVID-19 on all-cause mortality in sub-Saharan Africa remains unknown. Methods We monitored among 306,000 residents Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kenya, through four waves from April 2020-September 2021. calculated expected deaths using negative binomial regression fitted to baseline data (2010-2019) excess as observed-minus-expected deaths. excluded infancy because under-ascertainment births during lockdown. In February 2021, after two wild-type COVID-19, adult seroprevalence anti-SARS-CoV-2 was 25.1%. predicted COVID-19-attributable the product age-specific seroprevalence, population size global infection fatality ratios (IFR). examined changes cause death by Verbal Autopsy (VA). Results Between 2020 we observed 1,000 against 1,012 (excess -1.2%, 95% PI -6.6%, 5.8%). Based SARS-CoV-2 306 (a 30.6%) within this period. Monthly analyses showed a significant adults aged ≥45 years only months, July-August coinciding with fourth (Delta) wave COVID-19. By September overall 3.2% (95% -0.6%, 8.1%) cumulative risk 18.7/100,000. VA, there transient reduction attributable acute respiratory infections 2020. Conclusions Normal rates extensive transmission 2021 suggests that IFR for variant is lower Kenya than elsewhere. found associated Delta but low coastal compared estimates.