Viral burdens are associated with age and viral variant in a population-representative study of SARS-CoV-2 that accounts for time-since-infection related sampling bias

• DOI: 10.1101/2022.12.02.518847
• Publication Date: 2022-12-03T05:20:16Z
• Authors: Helen R. Fryer; Tanya Golubchik; Matthew Hall; Christophe Fraser; Robert Hinch; Luca Ferretti; Laura Thomson; Anel Nurtay; Lorenzo Pellis; George MackIntyre...; Amy Trebes; David Buck; Paolo Piazza; Angela Green; Lorne J Lonie; Darren Smith; Matthew Bashton; Matthew Crown; Andrew Nelson; Clare M. McCann; Adnan Mohammed Tariq; Rui Nunes Dos Santos; Zack Richards; ; David Bonsall; Katrina A. Lythgoe
• Keywords: Viral infection

Abstract In this study, we evaluated the impact of viral variant, in addition to other variables, on within-host burdens, by analysing cycle threshold (Ct) values derived from nose and throat swabs, collected as part UK COVID-19 Infection Survey. Because burden distributions determined community survey data can be biased due variant epidemiology time-since-infection samples, developed a method explicitly adjust observed Ct value account for expected bias. Analysing adjusted using partial least squares regression, found that among unvaccinated individuals with no known prior infection, average was 0.94 lower Alpha infections, compared those predecessor strain, B.1.177. However, vaccinated individuals, it 0.34 Delta variant. addition, decreased 0.20 every 10 year age increment infected individual. summary, burdens are associated age, interplay vaccination status