Climate change jointly with migration ability affect future range shifts of dominant fir species in Southwest China

• DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13018
• Publication Date: 2019-12-30T07:52:38Z
• Authors: Ziyan Liao; Lin Zhang; Michael P. Nobis; Xiaogang Wu; Kaiwen Pan; Keqing Wang; Mohammed A. Dakhil; Mingxi Du; Qinli Xiong; Bikram Pandey; Xianglin Tian
• Keywords: Species distribution; Abies alba; Environmental niche modelling; Global Change

Abstract Aim As a prominent geographical distribution centre for the dark coniferous forests, mountains of Southwest China (MSWC) is experiencing an unprecedented warming trend, posing severe challenges to survival dominant fir ( Abies ) species. Although plant's migration ability prerequisite its in changing environments, it has often been ignored species models (SDMs). This study aimed quantify magnitude and direction range changes by year 2080 six species, that recurvata , faxoniana squamata ernestii forrestii georgei with emphasis on exploring relationship between projected distributions. Location The China. Methods We applied Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm calibrate ecological niche project climatically suitable areas (CSAs) each under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5). Additionally, we delimited future ranges three (full‐, no‐ partial‐migration scenarios). Results simulations showed distinctive responses anthropogenic climate change (ACC). By 2080, were decline only no‐migration scenario but increase full‐ scenarios, while other five majority × scenarios. Fir southern region predicted be more vulnerable ACC due larger losses CSAs stronger effect newly colonized this group. studied simulated trend (northward westward) interior Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau ACC. Main conclusions Benefits or depended location, their niches abilities, which provide essential insights spatial conservation assessment biodiversity hotspots future.